Superstars of the 2009 – 2014 bull market

Superstar

Consumer Borgwarner – BWA: Autoparts: Fuel economy standards and improved emission drives growth. P/E (12/14E) – 17.7x Footlocker – FL: Athletic Apparel: Fitness theme. P/E (12/14E) – 15.0x Fossil – FOSL: Watches & Lifestyle. Collection of different brands eg. A/X, Diesel, DKNY, Adidas. 44% of US Market. Growth of Fossil outstrips that of industry. P/E…

Global Financials

World's tallest buildings

Here are some wave patterns of the Global Banks. Most seem to follow the pattern of the global financial ETF IXG and Banking Index BKX. For some banks 2007 marked a Supercycle Wave V Top. For other banks it marked a Grandsupercycle Wave (V) Top, and the ensuring correction was more severe. General it was…

Utilities

Pylons

The Utility sector hit a Wave V Supercycle peak in 2008. 2014 is a Cycle B Wave that has topped. Cycle C Wave is to come. The Utilities weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 2.9%. The Utility stocks themselves are quite mixed. There are many stocks that follow the pattern of the index…

Consumer Services

WalMart & Mcds

The Consumer Services Sector is reaching a Supercycle Wave V top in 2014. The Consumer Services weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 12.5%. Many individual Consumer Services stocks are also hitting their Supercycle Wave V high in 2014. WMT ($257bn), AMZN ($140bn), DIS ($139bn), CMCSA ($134bn), MCD ($100bn), SBUX ($54bn), YUM($34bn)   For…

Technology

Microchip

The Technology sector is a fascinating one because it is so dynamic. The 2000 bull market top is the orthodox high of the sector and has not yet been eclipsed. However 2014 marks the high of many technology stocks – many of which were not yet established in 2000 and did not participate in the…

Industrials

CAT 336E LH

For the Industrials 2014 marks a Supercycle Wave V Top. The Industrials weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 10.9%. Most industrial stocks exhibit patterns in line with that of the sector IYJ. UTX ($107bn), BA ($93bn), MMM ($90bn), HON ($72bn), CAT ($65bn), LMT ($52bn) One of the notable exceptions is GE ($268bn) that…

Healthcare

Pills

The Healthcare sector has been one of the strongest sectors to date, and one of the last to top out. 2014 represents a Supercycle Wave V top. The Healthcare weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 13.0%. As you can see some of the stocks below have exhibited tremendous price appreciation in the past…

Financials

Wall Street

Looking at the severity of the selloff in the financial crisis of 2008, it is possible that the financial sector – represented here by IYG and BKX hit a Grandsupercycle (V) Top in 2007. Since then we have traced out (A) wave down with wave (C) to come. The real estate sector IYR also topped…

Sectors in which 2014 is a Supercycle Top

Biker on cliff edge

The sectors in which 2014 is the wave V Supercycle top are Consumer (IYC), Services (IYK), ¬†Healthcare (IYH), Industrials (IYJ) and Transport (DJT). Together the account for around 47% of the weighting in the S&P500. Out of a clear sky these stalwarts and loved sectors of the 2009 – 2014 bull market will drop suddenly…

Sectors in which 2014 is a B wave top

Hanging off cliff edge

After a long climb to the top from 2009 the sectors in which 2014 is a B Wave or D wave top are Energy (IYE), Materials (IYM), Financials (IYG), Utilities (DJU) and Technology (Nasdaq Comp). Together these sectors make up approximately 53% of the weighting in the S&P500. So as you can see 2014 is…