Technology

Microchip

The Technology sector is a fascinating one because it is so dynamic. The 2000 bull market top is the orthodox high of the sector and has not yet been eclipsed. However 2014 marks the high of many technology stocks – many of which were not yet established in 2000 and did not participate in the 2000 bull market top in any meaningful way. The Semiconductor Index SOX also exhibits a similar pattern. The Technology weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 20.9%.

IYW 2000 -2014
SOX 1994 - 2014

Many Technology stocks have so far been unable to surpass the 2000 bull market high. They have traced out a Cycle B Wave high in 2014.
I will call this class of stocks Old Tech – MSFT ($334bn), T($184bn), ORCL ($179bn), INTC ($132bn), YHOO ($36bn)

MSFT 1986 - 2014

ORCL 1986 - 2014

T 1984 - 2014
INTC 1980 -2014

YHOO 1996 - 2014
There are some newer technology stocks in which 2014 marks the Supercycle Wave V Top.
I will call this 2nd class of stocks New Tech – AAPL ($508bn), GOOG ($360bn),┬áIBM ($200bn), ADBE ($30bn), CRM ($31bn), CTSH ($29bn), FB ($148bn)

AAPL 1980 - 2014

GOOG 2004 - 2014

IBM 1962 - 2014

ADBE 1986 - 2014
CRM 2004 - 1014
CTSH 1998 - 2014

FB 2013 -2014