Financials

Wall Street

Looking at the severity of the selloff in the financial crisis of 2008, it is possible that the financial sector – represented here by IYG and BKX hit a Grandsupercycle (V) Top in 2007. Since then we have traced out (A) wave down with wave (C) to come. The real estate sector IYR also topped out with the rest of the financial sector. The Financials weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 16.1%.

BKX 27-04014 20yr IYG 27-04-14 14 yr
IYR 2000-2014Most of the megabanks and other financial institutions follow the main pattern of the index, where 2007 marked the top. JPM ($212bn), C ($146bn), BAC ($160bn), WFC ($260bn), AIG ($77bn), MS ($62bn)

JPM 1983-2013C 1977-2014
BAC 1986 - 2014WFC 1972-2014
AIG 1985-2013
MS 1993 - 2014

For other mainly non-bank financials (Insurance, Credit Cards, REITs, Money Managers), the Supercycle Top was only reached in 2014. BRK A ($317bn), AXP ($93bn), SPG ($53bn), BLK ($50bn), TRV ($31bn), DFS ($26bn), CB ($23bn).

BRK A 1980 -2014

AXP 1972 - 2014

SPG 1994 - 2014
BLK 1999 - 2014
TRV 1987-2014
DFS 2007 - 2014
CB 1984 - 2014