Technology

The Technology sector is a fascinating one because it is so dynamic. The 2000 bull market top is the orthodox high of the sector and has not yet been eclipsed. However 2014 marks the high of many technology stocks – many of which were not yet established in 2000 and did not participate in the…

Industrials

For the Industrials 2014 marks a Supercycle Wave V Top. The Industrials weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 10.9%. Most industrial stocks exhibit patterns in line with that of the sector IYJ. UTX ($107bn), BA ($93bn), MMM ($90bn), HON ($72bn), CAT ($65bn), LMT ($52bn) One of the notable exceptions is GE ($268bn) that…

Healthcare

The Healthcare sector has been one of the strongest sectors to date, and one of the last to top out. 2014 represents a Supercycle Wave V top. The Healthcare weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 13.0%. As you can see some of the stocks below have exhibited tremendous price appreciation in the past…

Financials

Looking at the severity of the selloff in the financial crisis of 2008, it is possible that the financial sector – represented here by IYG and BKX hit a Grandsupercycle (V) Top in 2007. Since then we have traced out (A) wave down with wave (C) to come. The real estate sector IYR also topped…

Energy

The Energy Sector IYE reached a Supercycle Wave V high in 2008. 2014 represents a Wave B up of Cycle degree which should give rise to a Wave C down which has just started. The Oil&Gas Exploration and Production Index IEO also shows a similar pattern. The Energy weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end…

Consumer Goods

US Consumer stocks have reached a Supercycle V top in 2014. Cycle wave A down is to come. The Consumer Goods weighting in the S&P500 at 2013 year-end is 9.8%. The patterns of the individual stocks within the IYK sector is a bit mixed. For some stocks 2014 is the Wave V Supercycle top whereas…

Basic Materials

The Basic Material stocks have completed a Supercycle Top V, and Cycle Wave B up from 2009 – 2014 has just completed. The Gold/Sector XAU ($181bn) peaked later in 2011 but since then has also come off dramatically. Cycle Wave C down is to come for both indices. The Basic Materials weighting in the S&P500…

Sectors in which 2014 is a Supercycle Top

The sectors in which 2014 is the wave V Supercycle top are Consumer (IYC), Services (IYK), ¬†Healthcare (IYH), Industrials (IYJ) and Transport (DJT). Together the account for around 47% of the weighting in the S&P500. Out of a clear sky these stalwarts and loved sectors of the 2009 – 2014 bull market will drop suddenly…

Sectors in which 2014 is a B wave top

After a long climb to the top from 2009 the sectors in which 2014 is a B Wave or D wave top are Energy (IYE), Materials (IYM), Financials (IYG), Utilities (DJU) and Technology (Nasdaq Comp). Together these sectors make up approximately 53% of the weighting in the S&P500. So as you can see 2014 is…

Sun setting on emerging market bonds

Once seen as the hero of the investment community, emerging market bonds have completed 5 waves up from the Oct 2008 low, which is in turn a 5th Wave of a larger degree. This 5th wave up was fueled by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to zero, which in turn gave rise to a…

Patiently waiting for the top

It has taken another 6 months for the Dow to continue its rise, which is far longer than we have anticipated. However, the long term pattern still holds and the updated Supercycle top wave count is below. It is our current view that we are currently tracing out wave D of a Supercycle Degree triangle….