One Final Push

Following the Fed’s decision to carry on monetary stimulus the S&P 500 shot up to a new record high. This looks to be the final push up of the entire bull market rise from 1900-present. We can count 5 waves up of multiple degrees – down from Grand Supercycle degree all the way to Minuette…

Could the Dow Industrials be hitting a Grand Supercycle Top?

It is possible that the Dow Industrials is currently hitting a Grand Supercycle Top. As you can see based on a historic stock market chart from 1900 – 2013 below, Aug 2013 marks the high of a series of tops of different degrees – all the way up to a Grand Super Cycle Top. Our Wave Count…

The dance to oil on a slippery ground

Since hitting a supercycle degree top of $147 a barrel in July 2008, WTI Crude experienced a dramatic crash down to $32 a barrel by Dec 2008. the past 4 yrs have seen a wave B rally to $110 which is currently topping. Once it tops wave C will begin and it will take prices back…

Gold losing its shine

Since reaching a wave 5 peak in Sep 2011, gold has been in a downtrend. This is the start of wave A down that will take gold prices to at least below $1,000 oz.

UK Housing Outlook

The UK housing market has not yet reached a bottom. The 4 year rebound from 2009-2013 was a wave B, which has not yet topped. Once the FTSE100 begins its next leg down expect to see a downturn in UK housing prices as wave C unfolds. For our long term outlook on the UK FTSE100…

US Housing Outlook

Since the US Housing bubble burst in 2006, prices took a sharp drop before clawing its way back up from 2009-2013 as shown in the Case-Shiller Index below. We expect there will be another leg down before prices find a bottom as the stock market plunges to new lows. For more information on our long…

Engineered for strength

The German DAX30 has performed the most resiliently out of all the European stock indices. However it reached it’s Cycle Wave 5 top in Aug 2013, and the trend is now down. Germany has the best fiscal management in Europe, and hence the lowest bond yields. With unemployment only at 5.3%, it is also the…

The calm before the storm

The FTSE100 reached its wave 5 peak in Mar 2000. Since then it has traced out the A-B-C-D part of a triangle correction. Wave E of this triangle has just started and will bring prices lower in the coming years. The pattern in the FTSE100 is very similar to the US Stock Markets. Not surprising…

March for a better tomorrow

The French CAC40 peaked in March 2000. Since then it has been in one long downtrend. Social mood is already quite negative with unemployment above 11%. We expect wave C down to continue which will bring prices much lower than the March 2003 low of 2,500..   The pattern in the CAC is very similar…

US Treasuries point to deflationary times ahead

If we take a look at the long term US 10-yr Treasury Chart we can see that ever since the rampant inflationary period of the early 1980s the 10-yr yields have been in a downward trend. Since hitting an all-time low of 1.4% in Aug 2012, yields have more than doubled, touching its long-term trendline…

Biting the bullet

The Nikkei 225 has been in one big bear market that began in 1990 after the land bubble burst. At the time the land on which the emperor’s palace sat was said to be worth more than all in the land in California. Long term investors have been disappointed time and time again as rallies…

Taking the slow boat

The Hong Kong HSI stock market has not been able to reach the lofty 30,000 level seen in Oct 2007. Corrective wave wave B has just peaked and the trend is now down as C wave unfolds. We will not see a bottom for the HSI until the low of wave A is breached –…

Prepare for the ride ahead

China’s domestic stock market is the 2nd largest in the world after the US. Since 2007 when the stock market reached bubble territory and peaked we have seen the ensuing bursting of a bubble. Looking at the CSI300 below we can see that we are in the midst of a C wave down that will…

Eurozone Crisis

The Eurostoxx 50 is in the middle of at least a cycle wave degree C wave, that began towards the end of 2007. Eurozone economies and stock markets have both not recovered as much as US and Asia. This weakness seems to indicate that the degree of this top is larger than the US and…